{"id":29300,"date":"2021-10-14T11:22:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-14T04:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ttud.com.vn\/?p=29300"},"modified":"2022-02-15T10:00:14","modified_gmt":"2022-02-15T03:00:14","slug":"cac-mo-hinh-khi-tuong-chua-the-mo-phong-hien-tuong-gian-doan-nong-len-toan-cau","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/casta.ttud.com.vn\/index.php\/cac-mo-hinh-khi-tuong-chua-the-mo-phong-hien-tuong-gian-doan-nong-len-toan-cau\/","title":{"rendered":"C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh kh\u00ed t\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u01b0a th\u1ec3 m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00f3ng l\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>M\u1ed9t nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n b\u1edfi TS. Wei v\u00e0 TS. Qiao c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7n H\u1ea3i d\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u1ecdc s\u1ed1 1 (Trung Qu\u1ed1c) \u0111\u00e3 cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 v\u1ec1 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a m\u1eabu m\u00e1y CMIP6 ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn trong vi\u1ec7c m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00f3ng l\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/khds.1cdn.vn\/2021\/10\/12\/global-warming-climate-change-artists-concept-777x518.jpg\" alt=\"global-warming-climate-change-artists-concept-777x518.jpg\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Sau \u0111\u1ee3t \u1ea5m l\u00ean ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3 v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng n\u0103m cu\u1ed1i th\u1ebf k\u1ec9 20, nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea5t l\u1ea1i t\u0103ng ch\u1eadm b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1998 \u0111\u1ebfn 2013, m\u1eb7c cho s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng kh\u00f4ng ng\u1eebng c\u1ee7a kh\u00ed nh\u00e0 k\u00ednh. Hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00f3ng l\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, hay ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ch\u1eadm h\u00f3a. \u0110\u00e2y v\u1eabn l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 l\u1eddi gi\u1ea3i v\u00e0 v\u00ec th\u1ebf c\u0169ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng m\u1ed1i quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c kh\u00ed t\u01b0\u1ee3ng.<br>Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh kh\u00ed h\u1eadu t\u00e2n ti\u1ebfn v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c nh\u01b0 CMIP5 \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng l\u1ea1i s\u1ef1 ch\u1eadm h\u00f3a n\u00e0y. V\u00e0o nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1998-2013, h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ec1u d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n Tr\u00e1i \u0110\u1ea5t s\u1ebd n\u00f3ng l\u00ean nhanh ch\u00f3ng, tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n so v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 quan s\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 qu\u00e1 cao t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 \u1ea5m l\u00ean thu nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trong th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m l\u00fac b\u1ea5y gi\u1edd. H\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh CMIP5 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng t\u00e1i hi\u1ec7n l\u1ea1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00f3ng l\u00ean gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 quan s\u00e1t th\u1ea5y g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y.<br>T\u1eeb n\u0103m 2020, nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng tin v\u1ec1 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh kh\u00ed t\u01b0\u1ee3ng CMIP6 \u0111ang d\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9. C\u00e1c c\u1ea3i ti\u1ebfn m\u1edbi bao g\u1ed3m s\u1ef1 am hi\u1ec3u h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh x\u1eed l\u00ed c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng thi\u00ean nhi\u00ean s\u1ebd tr\u1edf n\u00ean h\u1ee3p l\u00ed h\u01a1n. C\u00f9ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u00f3, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh m\u1edbi n\u00e0y c\u0169ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u00ec v\u1ecdng s\u1ebd c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00f3ng l\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<br>B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch so s\u00e1nh v\u1edbi 6 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u1ec1 nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u00ean b\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t tr\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea5t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng r\u1ed9ng r\u00e3i, nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7n H\u1ea3i d\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u1ecdc s\u1ed1 1 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a 28 m\u1eabu m\u00e1y CMIP6 v\u1eeba c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 trong vi\u1ec7c m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00f3ng l\u00ean g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y. H\u1ea7u h\u1ebft nh\u1eefng m\u1eabu n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec1u th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ti\u1ebfn b\u1ed9 kh\u1ea3 quan so v\u1edbi m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh CMIP5 c\u0169.<br>H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 khoa h\u1ecdc c\u00f2n ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n ra l\u00ed do khi\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n tr\u1edf n\u00ean kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi CMIP6. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 do s\u1ef1 sai s\u00f3t c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y trong vi\u1ec7c t\u00e1i hi\u1ec7n l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i nhi\u1ec7t kh\u00f4ng theo xu h\u01b0\u1edbng n\u00f3ng l\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u d\u01b0\u1edbi t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a con ng\u01b0\u1eddi ho\u1eb7c c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean theo n\u0103m, theo th\u1eadp k\u1ec9 v\u00e0 theo nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ec9.<br>Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u n\u00e0y c\u0169ng ch\u1ee9ng minh r\u1eb1ng, m\u1ea5u ch\u1ed1t \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 trong th\u1eddi gian ng\u1eafn \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i ph\u00e2n bi\u1ec7t ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u00e0 m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 2 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u1ea5m l\u00ean v\u1ec1 l\u00e2u d\u00e0i do t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a con ng\u01b0\u1eddi v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i tr\u00ean quy m\u00f4 nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ec9 s\u1eafp t\u1edbi. Nh\u1eefng k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng tin quan tr\u1ecdng trong vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu s\u1edbm x\u1ea3y ra<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right\"><strong>B\u1ea2O<\/strong> <strong>NINH<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right\"><a href=\"https:\/\/khoahocdoisong.vn\/cac-mo-hinh-khi-tuong-chua-the-mo-phong-hien-tuong-gian-doan-nong-len-toan-cau-181596.html\">https:\/\/khoahocdoisong.vn\/cac-mo-hinh-khi-tuong-chua-the-mo-phong-hien-tuong-gian-doan-nong-len-toan-cau-181596.html<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>M\u1ed9t nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n b\u1edfi TS. Wei v\u00e0 TS. Qiao c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7n H\u1ea3i d\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u1ecdc s\u1ed1 1 (Trung Qu\u1ed1c) \u0111\u00e3 cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 v\u1ec1 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a m\u1eabu m\u00e1y CMIP6 ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn trong vi\u1ec7c m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00f3ng l\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Sau \u0111\u1ee3t \u1ea5m l\u00ean ch\u01b0a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":29301,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[47],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29300","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tin-tuc"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/casta.ttud.com.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29300","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/casta.ttud.com.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/casta.ttud.com.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/casta.ttud.com.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/23"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/casta.ttud.com.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29300"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/casta.ttud.com.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29300\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31109,"href":"https:\/\/casta.ttud.com.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29300\/revisions\/31109"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/casta.ttud.com.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29301"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/casta.ttud.com.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29300"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/casta.ttud.com.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29300"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/casta.ttud.com.vn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29300"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}